Current Stock Snapshot
- MCX shares surged ~5 % to an all-time high of ₹8,620 on June 25, 2025, after global brokerage UBS raised its 12-month target from ₹7,000 to ₹10,000 while maintaining a Buy recommendation .
- The rally was accompanied by a spike in trading volume and robust momentum across futures and options markets .
- MCX has more than doubled in value over the past year, delivering nearly 120 % gains, far outperforming the broader indices .
Key Drivers Behind the Surge
UBS Upgrade
- UBS cited strong commodity volatility, rising trading volumes, and the rollout of new products—like electricity derivatives and monthly bullion options—as core catalysts for profitability .
- Since April, futures ADV jumped ~50 % QoQ and options premiums ADV rose ~30 % QoQ, underlining strong fee-based revenue generation .
New Financial Instruments
- Electricity derivatives gained approval from SEBI on June 9, pushing the stock to fresh highs (~₹7,700) .
- MCX also introduced monthly silver options, targeting more diversified revenue streams .
Options Market Activity
- On June 25, MCX saw notable spikes in call option activity, especially at the ₹8,700 strike—over 18k contracts—signaling bullish investor sentiment .https://mediawala.live
Technical & Market Outlook
- MCX is trading well above its key moving averages, reflecting strong upward momentum .
- According to weekly analysis, key support initially lies near ₹8,257, while resistance zones range from ₹8,429 to ₹8,751 .
- today’s breakout above ₹8,600 suggests potential for a move toward UBS’s ₹10,000 target, with next resistance likely near ₹9,000–₹9,200.
Analyst Recommendations
- Motilal Oswal and ET Now experts included MCX among top picks for short‑term trading amid rising geopolitical tensions .
- YES Securities also cited MCX in early‑June trade ideas, classifying it as a high-conviction stock for active traders .
Outlook & Risks
Bullish Triggers:
- Further volatility in commodities boosting ADV and fee revenue.
- Successful rollouts of electricity and bullion derivatives gaining traction.
- Continued options market participation signaling bullish institutional hype.
Watch-Outs:
- Market corrections could stall momentum.
- Any regulatory hiccups around new contracts.
- Execution delays could weigh on investor sentiment.
Summary
MCX is trending strongly near ₹8,600–₹8,700, backed by UBS upgrade, product innovation, and record trading volumes. With next “resistance” at ₹10,000 per UBS and technical calls, it’s a stock to watch—especially for traders eyeing breakout opportunities. However, investors should also monitor volatility risks and potential regulatory hurdles.
